The ongoing US-Canada tariff war is raising concerns about its potential impact on Montreal’s condo market. With the threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and retaliatory measures from Canada, economic uncertainty is growing. How might this affect condo prices, sales, rental supply and demand, and rental prices in Montreal?
On the sales front, rising construction costs due to tariffs on US-imported materials like steel, aluminum, and glass could push condo prices higher. Montreal’s construction sector relies on these imports, and increased costs may be passed on to buyers, making new condos less affordable. At the same time, economic slowdown fears—potentially shrinking Canada’s GDP and weakening consumer confidence—could dampen demand. Homebuyers might hesitate, leading to fewer sales and possibly stabilizing or even softening resale condo prices in the short term. Data from February 2025 shows Montreal’s average condo price at $416,900, up 4.9% year-over-year, but tariff-related uncertainty could slow this growth.
For rentals, the picture is complex. A tariff-driven economic dip might reduce job growth, pushing more people into renting rather than buying. This could boost rental demand, especially for condos, which are already a key housing option in Montreal. However, if construction slows due to higher costs, rental supply might tighten over time, driving up rents. As of early 2025, Montreal’s rental market has been balanced, but a surge in demand without matching supply could shift this dynamic. Conversely, if economic pressures lead investors to sell off rental properties, supply could increase, potentially stabilizing or lowering rents.
Montreal’s relative affordability compared to cities like Toronto and Vancouver might cushion some effects, but the tariff war’s ripple effects—higher costs, lower confidence, and shifting supply-demand balances—will likely shape the condo market in unpredictable ways. What are your thoughts on how this might play out?
